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Is 29 ways really just a one-win for the entire promo?

Question asked by brightlybob on Oct 13, 2018
Latest reply on Dec 14, 2018 by seattlebob

So here’s the deal. Play 29-ways daily to win one of 85,000 prizes per day.


It’s simple, login, match hotels, once you’ve done the computer will draw an instant sweepstake there and then. Half are losers, the other half can win as little as 50 points (75,000 prizes daily) through 500, 1,000, 2,000, 5,000, 10,000 and 20,000 points to 3 daily prizes of a 4-night stay at a “brand of the day” hotel of your choice. 


But here’s the catch. It seems you can only win once, there’s a rule that says just this but I, along with the major bloggers, Pointsguy, loyaltylobby, Brian Cohen, headforpoints to name but a few took the view that the “one instant win” rule simply meant each day was a separate competition, hence each person can win once each day. Alas, that seems not to be the case, all those contributing to statistics in those bloggers replies, across Flyertalk and here too report that once they’ve won something (mostly it seems 50 points on the very first day) they don’t win again. Nothing at all. So win 50 points on day one and you have no chance of winning any of the brand hotel stays at all during the following 28 days.


Now, the rules state that your chances of winning anything each day are 2:1 and Marriott are quoting 84,444 prizes each day, over 29 days that’s 2,448,000 daily prizes. It’s also saying every time you play you’ll receive an entry to the Grand Draw with the chances of winning dependent upon total entries but estimated at 4,500,000:1.


So Marriott is expecting a total of roughly 4,500,000 entries from the players to the grand draw and is giving away 2,448,000 prizes over the 29 days at 50:50. Allowing for the fact that some days may garner considerably more entries than others mathematically it seems each time an entry is placed in the main draw it should have had a roughly 50:50 chance of winnng one of that days daily prizes. That’s why the total daily prizes are half the number of the overall odds of winning the main prize.


Some maths somewhere isn’t right. 4,500,000 total entries and 2,500,000 daily prizes must mean each and every entry to the main draw generates a 50:50 chance of winning a daily prize. 


So which is right? The evidence of the maths that clearly mandates for every two entries to the jackpot draw, one minor prize will be awarded, or the emerging evidence that once any daily prize is won, no other prize can be? Can communitymanagers ask a few questions upstairs and circle back here? There’s a correct reply star going for you if you can!


And to make the question clear - Does the 29-ways promotion “one prize per person” rule mean that only one prize can be won per person over the entire 29 days so that once you’ve won a prize you’ve no chance of winning on any subsequent day?


And for everyone else. Can anyone confirm if they’ve won an instant prize more than once?