Here's a useful article which sheds some more light on this issue and helps you establish your strategy:
Thanks for posting. In normal times this type of sharing would be appreciated. In today's upside down Marriott integration world, more data has often resulted in less info.
IMO this article just adds more 'fluff' to the discussion we've been having for weeks. Bottom line, no one knows and Flueck, who may know (although he didn't know squat about MVC back in April) is less transparent than William the Lurker.
To me the most useful sentence in the Head for Points article is the following:
"I’m certainly not going to recommend what you should do in this scenario".
To me the most frightening sentence in the Head for Points article is the following:
What David Flueck said to me yesterday – to be clear – is that they were still hoping to find a way of migrating existing Travel Package certificates but that the alternative (voiding them all and doing a refund) is a very real possibility.
"To be clear" (well guess what Rob) - When the word ALL is used does Rob mean all floater certificates or all travel package certificates - did Davey boy mean only floater certificates and Rob missed the quote or did Davey mean all travel package certificates....again, who the heck knows?
One other little tidbit - Rob leaves out Option 4
Marriott redeems points at the Airline miles purchase price. For example, it takes 112,000 Marriott points to buy 50,000 United miles. Do whatever math you want, the amount of Marriott points returned can get pretty ugly, pretty quick (for example - 100,000 miles for 224,000 Marriott points). Marriott could use any permutation they desire.
And don't rule this Option 4 out, just because folks think "it wouldn't be fair" - we already have the precedent; buying Marriott points vs. Instant Redemption (meaning you buy points for X $$ and in reverse, you redeem points for 70% of your X $$ (or whatever arbitrage % it is - I never bothered to calculate since it was prohibitively costly except for those with points to burn). Remember the $1,000 cheque that used to be purchased for 135,000 points on 12/31 and then with the change on 1/1 cost 255,000 points? There is no reason (hope, yes) to 'know' that Marriott will be 'fair'. And please, no litigation chit chat either, your grandkids would be spending the proceeds to get a free lobby orange infused water.
Alrighty then, let's begin another three weeks of speculating, guessing, wishin', hopin', and wondering.
I have my travel package cert...waiting for the AA miles to plop into my account. The article mentioned 1000 or so...I think that's a fair ballpark number, but who knows?
I think most of the speculation is silly. The travel package are a good deal now even if you get the refund points for the hotel portion and a great deal if want to use the hotel portion. Going forward they just make it a little cheaper points wise to do it in a package vs a redemption and a transfer under the announced new transfer program.
Those that hat are expecting a redemption, ie package, that’s for a hotel/resort that 25k to become one worth 35k just because both are called a category 5 are dreaming. Just as those that assumed an elite class that takes 25 night to achieve should be granted the benifits of one that takes 50 nights. To sssume your going to do better than the current beneficial packages is like being disappointed because you didn’t win the lottery.
I’m in the process of trying to do 3 packages and Marriott,s epic failure in getting it dome is another story but currently if you use 200k points for a cat 5 and 55k mikes and turn the hotel portion basin you get refunded 75k points. So 55k mikes cost 125k pointts. With SPG, and going forward with the combined transfer rules those 125k points can be transferred into 55k mikes. 120k mile packages, which is what I wanted, are a bit better deal than a straight transfer. But then with very few exceptions I’d prefer to save the points and buy the hotel, thus generate points, and use those for airline rewards flights. I mean we've spent 7 nights in a 50k, T3, on the beach in Feb and its cost me for the room $2,800 total, but they through in a $100/resort credit. Between the points I didn’t use and the ones I earn from the stay I have enough airline miles after the SPG transfer for flights worth at least $8,000. But that’s just me and I have no desire to go to Bora Bora or spend a week at the Place Vandome, to the later I can think of a dozen good small Paris hotel I’d prefer or maybe the Ritz or George V
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