how many nights up to now, and how many projected for 2016?

Discussion created by ramoneur on May 5, 2016
Latest reply on May 7, 2016 by homoviator

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question is simple:

how many nights you have stayed for this cycle, 2016

and how many (X(now) * 366/Y(remaining) ) will be this be, projected for this year, without any bonusses etc.?

I have now (5 May 2016) 50 nights;

12 roll over

38 "real"

which means I will have projection of: 12 + 38 + (38 * 366/(31+29+31+30+5)) = 12 + 38 + 110 = 160 nights

my real expected number of nights will be:

12 + 38 + 9 (remaining business trip) + 4*2 (trip to Bachfest in June, with bonus) + 40*2 (about 40 nights for business trip + bonus) = 50 + 9 + 8 + 80 = 59 + 88 = 60 + 87 = 147 nights

Outcomes

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bejacob May 5, 2016 7:52 AM
Oooh. Math (or is that maths?) homework. Fun!

Let's see if I can follow your example.

I have 59 nights (5/5/2016)
19 roll over
40 "real" of which 17 are promotional (from my CC, birthday, etc.) so let's call that 23 nights stayed.

I'm going to modify your formula to make it simpler. 23 nights stayed in 4 months (January through April) is roughly 6 nights per month. That puts me on pace for 72 for the year, plus my 19 rollover and 17 promotional (so far). That would be 108. It's easy to see 4 more nights from the CC (probably more), so my projected nights would be at least 112.

Hard to say what the real number will be. I've got 18 nights already booked through September. I'm sure there will be more. My best guess is another 15-20 (so let's call that 18 as well). CC nights will probably add about 4 or 5. So that means 59 + 18 + 18? + 5? = 100. That seems plausible based on where I am today.

I'll be curious to see what the actual number turns out to be by the end of the year.
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razorbackfan May 5, 2016 10:04 AM
Now I remember why I changed my major from math to education.....
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iahflyr May 5, 2016 10:17 AM
This is way to much stress on an old geezers mind and plus it is CINCO DE MAYO!!!

I'll go along with the simple 18 nights so far in 2016, probably another 18 or so for a combined total of 36 (yes I had to take my flip flops off to count that high).
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mustanggt May 5, 2016 11:47 AM
I can better answer this question on 12/31/16!
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rlswider May 5, 2016 1:09 PM
246 so far this year 178 rollover dropped down this year been in exec u stay so only 1 night credit for 3 nights stayed . On the good side I'm at the aruba surf club right now
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- brightlybob @ rlswider on May 5, 2016 1:33 PM
  Aruba surf club, now that's a way to top up your nights!
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brightlybob May 9, 2016 2:43 AM
I believe ramoneur that you've found an interesting equation here, but alas slightly flawed. We also need to try to work in the near 7 months double nights promo into the equation. I must admit, that made me think about my position as I'm now at 647 Lifetime nights and within sight of my 750 nights for LTP (passed the 2mill points about a year ago).

So far I've stayed 24 nights, no rollovers, all stayed. My 10 credit card nights dont drop into my account till August.

So my average projected is 24 * 366/(31+29+31+30+5) = 70 + 10(C/C) = 80.

Adding in the nights already stayed as you've done in your equation ramoneur is a mathematical fallacy. The equation is as I've stated, and applying it to you should be:

(50-12) * 366/(31+29+31+30+5) = 110 + 12 = 122 nights.

By way of an easy cross-check apply bejacobs simple maths, namely you've already stayed 38 nights in 1/3rd of the year, so your average should be around 38x3=114+12=126. Not as precise as the formula but a straightforward cross-check for the equation exposing the fallacy of adding back the 38.

But like me your actual average is going to be effected by the double nights promo which doubles only paid nights, so redemption nights count only once, so I need to strip out my average redemption nights from the double nights equation, thusly:

Where

A= Total nights
B= Rollovers
C= Redemptions
D= Anniversary Credit Card nights to date
E= Anniversary Credit card nights awaited

A - (B+C+D) * 366/(31+29+31+30+5) * 2 + (B+C+D+E) - A

So in my case with 24 total nights, no rollovers, 7 redemptions, no anniversary nights yet, but 10 awaited in August:-

24 - (0+7+0) * 366/(31+29+31+30+5) * 2 + (0+7+0+10) - 24 = 92

So the average taking into account double night promo is 92 which gives me 17 rollovers for 2017 and puts me very close to that 750 number... Woohoo!
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- ramoneur @ brightlybob on May 5, 2016 3:50 PM
  thanks;
  I wrote the formula quickly and felt something was wrong;
  didn't have the time to go through it again ;-)
  thanks for the correction :-)
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  - brightlybob @ ramoneur on May 6, 2016 12:31 AM
    Actually I did likewise on the formula relating to double nights which effectively doubled the 17 paid nights I've already undertaken, so I've had to amend my post to correct that.
    
    I enjoy maths (math) but it twists my brain!
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painedplatinum May 5, 2016 3:59 PM

Looking back to 2011 full years plus 2016 thru 4/30:

	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011
Night Stays Base Earnings	41,987	201,965	121,729	157,085	94,466	82,339
50% Elite Bonus	20,996	100,987	60,870	78,546	47,236	41,173
Platinum Arrival Gift Pts	5,700	17,850	11,100	12,300	12,000	10,700
Mega Bonus'	35,000	100,000	145,000	160,000	100,000	115,000
Other Bonus'	9,325	44,625	3,600	34,500	60,250	14,300
Credit Card Air/Car/Dine	6,567	23,684	18,263	8,836	5,695	4,159
Credit Card Marriott	29,863	99,394	77,729	96,247	63,005	51,169
Credit Card Non Marriott	1,777	15,570	21,469	21,054	21,018	15,684
Total Earned	151,215	604,075	459,760	568,568	403,670	334,524
Rewards Used	70,000	507,500	350,000	715,000	340,000	135,000
Nights	180	268	220	203	161	114
Year End Balance on Hand	1,109,373	1,028,158	931,583	821,823	968,255	904,585
Rewards Nights Used	10	39	19	21	15	8
			plus flight

2016 looks close to 2014 on paper thru 4/30 for point accumulation. Nights look to be significantly different because of rollovers. I'll say 2016 ends with 150 nights stayed, 30 credit card, 1 birthday, 129 rollovers, total of 310

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ramoneur @ painedplatinum on May 5, 2016 4:24 PM
wow
thanks for the stats
i like numbers :-)
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brightlybob @ painedplatinum on May 6, 2016 12:38 AM
Nice summary indeed painedplatinum, astonishing numbers you clock up, even after burning over 2million points in 5 years (the amount required for Lifetime Plat), you've still over a million left. And over that same 5-year period you clocked up almost 1,000 nights credit. I've always said homes are over-rated, who needs a home, eh?
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homoviator @ painedplatinum on May 7, 2016 10:29 AM
You are the boss!
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taxman193 May 5, 2016 10:21 PM
So far .. 45 nights (21 rollover from last year) but I have a lot of trips coming up including 10 nights in the next two weeks and then another 10 nights in June and then 4 nights in July, 4 in August, 10 in September, 5 October and 10 in November assuming all trips go as planned.
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homoviator May 7, 2016 10:34 AM
at 30 right now
maybe 15 from rollover
will get another 10 for credit card
I will get about 10 over the summer
and about another 20 this fall
Platinum may be elusive for me this year.
I never get my birthday night. Now I finally care.
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how many nights up to now, and how many projected for 2016?

Outcomes

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