question is simple:

how many nights you have stayed for this cycle, 2016

and how many (X(now) * 366/Y(remaining) ) will be this be, projected for this year, without any bonusses etc.?

I have now (5 May 2016) 50 nights;

12 roll over

38 "real"

which means I will have projection of: 12 + 38 + (38 * 366/(31+29+31+30+5)) = 12 + 38 + 110 = 160 nights

my real expected number of nights will be:

12 + 38 + 9 (remaining business trip) + 4*2 (trip to Bachfest in June, with bonus) + 40*2 (about 40 nights for business trip + bonus) = 50 + 9 + 8 + 80 = 59 + 88 = 60 + 87 = 147 nights

Oooh. Math (or is that maths?) homework. Fun!

Let's see if I can follow your example.

I have 59 nights (5/5/2016)

19 roll over

40 "real" of which 17 are promotional (from my CC, birthday, etc.) so let's call that 23 nights stayed.

I'm going to modify your formula to make it simpler. 23 nights stayed in 4 months (January through April) is roughly 6 nights per month. That puts me on pace for 72 for the year, plus my 19 rollover and 17 promotional (so far). That would be 108. It's easy to see 4 more nights from the CC (probably more), so my projected nights would be at least 112.

Hard to say what the real number will be. I've got 18 nights already booked through September. I'm sure there will be more. My best guess is another 15-20 (so let's call that 18 as well). CC nights will probably add about 4 or 5. So that means 59 + 18 + 18? + 5? = 100. That seems plausible based on where I am today.

I'll be curious to see what the actual number turns out to be by the end of the year.